The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market

We analyze the intertemporal stability of excess returns to technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market by conducting true, out-of-sample tests on previously studied rules. The excess returns of the 1970s and 1980s were genuine and not just the result of data mining. But these profit opportunities had disappeared by the early 1990s for filter and moving average rules. Returns to less-studied rules also have declined but have probably not completely disappeared. High volatility prevents precise estimation of mean returns. These regularities are consistent with the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (Lo, 2004), but not with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.Foreign exchange market ; Foreign exchange

The interaction site of Flap Endonuclease-1 with WRN helicase suggests a coordination of WRN and PCNA

Werner and Bloom syndromes are genetic RecQ helicase disorders characterized by genomic instability. Biochemical and genetic data indicate that an important protein interaction of WRN and Bloom syndrome (BLM) helicases is with the structure-specific nuclease Flap Endonuclease 1 (FEN-1), an enzyme that is implicated in the processing of DNA intermediates that arise during cellular DNA replication, repair and recombination. To acquire a better understanding of the interaction of WRN and BLM with FEN-1, we have mapped the FEN-1 binding site on the two RecQ helicases. Both WRN and BLM bind to the extreme C-terminal 18 amino acid tail of FEN-1 that is adjacent to the PCNA binding site of FEN-1. The importance of the WRN/BLM physical interaction with the FEN-1 C-terminal tail was confirmed by functional interaction studies with catalytically active purified recombinant FEN-1 deletion mutant proteins that lack either the WRN/BLM binding site or the PCNA interaction site. The distinct binding sites of WRN and PCNA and their combined effect on FEN-1 nuclease activity suggest that they may coordinately act with FEN-1. WRN was shown to facilitate FEN-1 binding to its preferred double-flap substrate through its protein interaction with the FEN-1 C-terminal binding site. WRN retained its ability to physically bind and stimulate acetylated FEN-1 cleavage activity to the same extent as unacetylated FEN-1. These studies provide new insights to the interaction of WRN and BLM helicases with FEN-1, and how these interactions might be regulated with the PCNA-FEN-1 interaction during DNA replication and repai

Thank You to Our 2018 Peer Reviewers

AbstractThe editorial and scientific publishing process relies on the sustained work of volunteer reviewers, and evaluating the inter‐disciplinary and broad interest papers published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems can be a particular challenge. As editors and associated editors, we are therefore hugely appreciative of the efforts of our reviewers, and would like to thank and acknowledge them in this editorial. G‐Cubed published 271 manuscripts in 2018, and for this we were able to rely on the efforts of 873 dedicated reviewers. A big thank you from the G‐Cubed team

The behaviour of political parties and MPs in the parliaments of the Weimar Republic

Copyright @ 2012 The Authors. This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below.Analysing the roll-call votes of the MPs of the Weimar Republic we find: (1) that party competition in the Weimar parliaments can be structured along two dimensions: an economic left–right and a pro-/anti-democratic. Remarkably, this is stable throughout the entire lifespan of the Republic and not just in the later years and despite the varying content of votes across the lifespan of the Republic, and (2) that nearly all parties were troubled by intra-party divisions, though, in particular, the national socialists and communists became homogeneous in the final years of the Republic.Zukunftskolleg, University of Konstan

Genome-wide Association of Lipid-lowering Response to Statins in Combined Study Populations

Background: Statins effectively lower total and plasma LDL-cholesterol, but the magnitude of decrease varies among individuals. To identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to this variation, we performed a combined analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) results from three trials of statin efficacy. Methods and Principal Findings: Bayesian and standard frequentist association analyses were performed on untreated and statin-mediated changes in LDL-cholesterol, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride on a total of 3932 subjects using data from three studies: Cholesterol and Pharmacogenetics (40 mg/day simvastatin, 6 weeks), Pravastatin/Inflammation CRP Evaluation (40 mg/day pravastatin, 24 weeks), and Treating to New Targets (10 mg/day atorvastatin, 8 weeks). Genotype imputation was used to maximize genomic coverage and to combine information across studies. Phenotypes were normalized within each study to account for systematic differences among studies, and fixed-effects combined analysis of the combined sample were performed to detect consistent effects across studies. Two SNP associations were assessed as having posterior probability greater than 50%, indicating that they were more likely than not to be genuinely associated with statin-mediated lipid response. SNP rs8014194, located within the CLMN gene on chromosome 14, was strongly associated with statin-mediated change in total cholesterol with an 84% probability by Bayesian analysis, and a p-value exceeding conventional levels of genome-wide significance by frequentist analysis (P = 1.8×10$^{−8}$). This SNP was less significantly associated with change in LDL-cholesterol (posterior probability = 0.16, P = 4.0×10$^{−6}$). Bayesian analysis also assigned a 51% probability that rs4420638, located in APOC1 and near APOE, was associated with change in LDL-cholesterol. Conclusions and Significance: Using combined GWA analysis from three clinical trials involving nearly 4,000 individuals treated with simvastatin, pravastatin, or atorvastatin, we have identified SNPs that may be associated with variation in the magnitude of statin-mediated reduction in total and LDL-cholesterol, including one in the CLMN gene for which statistical evidence for association exceeds conventional levels of genome-wide significance.Trial Registration PRINCE and TNT are not registered. CAP is registered at Clinicaltrials.gov NCT0045182

First-year Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) Supernova Results: Hubble Diagram and Cosmological Parameters

We present measurements of the Hubble diagram for 103 Type Ia supernovae (SNe) with redshifts 0.04 < z < 0.42, discovered during the first season (Fall 2005) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) Supernova Survey. These data fill in the redshift "desert" between low- and high-redshift SN Ia surveys. We combine the SDSS-II measurements with new distance estimates for published SN data from the ESSENCE survey, the Supernova Legacy Survey, the Hubble Space Telescope, and a compilation of nearby SN Ia measurements. Combining the SN Hubble diagram with measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the SDSS Luminous Red Galaxy sample and with CMB temperature anisotropy measurements from WMAP, we estimate the cosmological parameters w and Omega_M, assuming a spatially flat cosmological model (FwCDM) with constant dark energy equation of state parameter, w. For the FwCDM model and the combined sample of 288 SNe Ia, we find w = -0.76 +- 0.07(stat) +- 0.11(syst), Omega_M = 0.306 +- 0.019(stat) +- 0.023(syst) using MLCS2k2 and w = -0.96 +- 0.06(stat) +- 0.12(syst), Omega_M = 0.265 +- 0.016(stat) +- 0.025(syst) using the SALT-II fitter. We trace the discrepancy between these results to a difference in the rest-frame UV model combined with a different luminosity correction from color variations; these differences mostly affect the distance estimates for the SNLS and HST supernovae. We present detailed discussions of systematic errors for both light-curve methods and find that they both show data-model discrepancies in rest-frame $U$-band. For the SALT-II approach, we also see strong evidence for redshift-dependence of the color-luminosity parameter (beta). Restricting the analysis to the 136 SNe Ia in the Nearby+SDSS-II samples, we find much better agreement between the two analysis methods but with larger uncertainties.Comment: Accepted for publication by ApJ

Reply to: New Meta- and Mega-analyses of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings in Schizophrenia: Do They Really Increase Our Knowledge About the Nature of the Disease Process?

This work was supported by National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering Grant No. U54EB020403 (to the ENIGMA consortium)

Separating the effects of early and later life adiposity on colorectal cancer risk:a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have linked childhood obesity with elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, it is unclear if this association is causal or independent from the effects of obesity in adulthood on colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate potential causal relationships between self-perceived body size (thinner, plumper, or about average) in early life (age 10) and measured body mass index in adulthood (mean age 56.5) with risk of colorectal cancer. The total and independent effects of body size exposures were estimated using univariable and multivariable MR, respectively. Summary data were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 453,169 participants in UK Biobank for body size and from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of three colorectal cancer consortia of 125,478 participants. RESULTS: Genetically predicted early life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR] per category change: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98–1.27), with stronger results for colon cancer (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00–1.35), and distal colon cancer (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04–1.51). After accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR, effect estimates for early life body size were attenuated towards the null for colorectal cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77–1.22) and colon cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76–1.25), while the estimate for distal colon cancer was of similar magnitude but more imprecise (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.90–1.77). Genetically predicted adult life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), colon (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67), and proximal colon (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the positive association between early life body size and colorectal cancer risk is likely due to large body size retainment into adulthood. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02702-9

First-Year Spectroscopy for the SDSS-II Supernova Survey

This paper presents spectroscopy of supernovae discovered in the first season of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II Supernova Survey. This program searches for and measures multi-band light curves of supernovae in the redshift range z = 0.05 - 0.4, complementing existing surveys at lower and higher redshifts. Our goal is to better characterize the supernova population, with a particular focus on SNe Ia, improving their utility as cosmological distance indicators and as probes of dark energy. Our supernova spectroscopy program features rapid-response observations using telescopes of a range of apertures, and provides confirmation of the supernova and host-galaxy types as well as precise redshifts. We describe here the target identification and prioritization, data reduction, redshift measurement, and classification of 129 SNe Ia, 16 spectroscopically probable SNe Ia, 7 SNe Ib/c, and 11 SNe II from the first season. We also describe our efforts to measure and remove the substantial host galaxy contamination existing in the majority of our SN spectra.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal(47pages, 9 figures